The northern areas of Aleppo have been finally cleared of ISIS terrorists by the Syrian Army. In the last 5 years or so Syria has suffered ~470000 deaths as a result of a conflict caused by foreign nations. In recent moths the Syrian army has been rapidly cutting through terrorist forces with the help of Russian air support. Without a doubt, military balance has been shifted in Syria.
During the current ceasefire however, external forces battle still. Even though Aleppo is nearly secured and major supply runs have been seriously stifled, Turkey today is the major sponsor of terror groups in Syria. Erdogan’s imperial schemes and Turkish elites oil smuggling with ISIS have a big part in the modern fight.
The successes of anti-terrorist forces in Syria have destroyed a hope to realize these plans easily. Considering this, the Erdogan’s regime launched preparations for a direct intervention to the country without any legal mandate. A high-level of concentration of the Turkish military are already observed in the Syrian-Turkish border by civil and military sources. Furthermore, there are irresistible videos proofs that Turkey has been conducting a series of cross-border artillery shelling violating the Syrian sovereignty.
Erdogen plans on moving 18000 troops, artillery, and air support onto Syrian soil currently under ISIS control. If his plans move forward, woe to Turkey as Russian military forces in place along with Syrian troops are more than capable of resisting and countering any Turkish move of this sort.
According to Southfront Intelligence, this leaves two possible scenarios:
If the SAA with support by militia forces, Iran, and Russia isn’t able to push the Turkish military from Syria, the Erdogan’s regime will strengthen presence at the occupied territories and use gained time to receive at least air and intelligence support by NATO. In this case, the conflict could easily lead to a global war.
If the SAA supported by local militias, Iran, and Russia knock out the Turkish intervention forces from Syria, NATO will face the fact that Syria is de-facto liberated and the terrorists are cut from their main supplier. It could prevent a global escalation. However, the NATO countries would strengthen their presence in Iraq and use it as a foothold to launch further destructive actions against Syria. The situation will also become especially acute in Ukraine and in the Central Asia because a destabilization in these regions could be easily used against the Syria’s main allies: Russia and Iran.
In my opinion, this may very well lead to the ‘Plan B’ that Kerry spoke of during meeting with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (a debate on the subject in the video below).
Could it be that the US is actually encouraging Erdogen in his aspirations? If so, Russia may just go for the partitioning plan. Its been mentioned by former Congresswoman Mechele Bauchmann and others that Russia would be content with control over Aleppo and Damascus.
Personally I believe this entire global effort to ‘get rid of Assad‘ an atrocity.